The decline of the iPad: Can the M4 Pro Save Tablet Sales?

Apple recently launched its most advanced tablet ever, the M4 iPad Pro, in a bid to revitalize a product category that has seen stagnating revenue. While the hardware is undeniably an engineering marvel, critics and consumers alike are asking a difficult question: Does a faster chip actually solve the iPad’s identity crisis? This analysis looks at whether raw power can overcome the limitations of iPadOS and if the M4 silicon is enough to convince professionals to upgrade.

The Paradox of Power: M4 Hardware vs. Reality

The 2024 iPad Pro features the M4 silicon, a chip so new it debuted in a tablet before hitting any of Apple’s Mac computers. On paper, the specifications are staggering. The M4 chip is built on second-generation 3-nanometer technology, featuring a new display engine and a Neural Engine capable of 38 trillion operations per second.

However, this hardware creates a confusing value proposition. Benchmarks show the M4 iPad Pro outperforms many high-end laptops. Yet, the tasks most users perform on an iPad—checking email, streaming Netflix, or light photo editing—can be done effortlessly on the 2018 iPad Pro.

The Hardware Ceiling

Apple has engineered a device with no physical rival. The 13-inch model is the thinnest product Apple has ever created, even thinner than the iPod Nano. The new “Tandem OLED” display stacks two OLED panels to achieve 1,000 nits of full-screen brightness and 1,600 nits of peak HDR brightness.

For a hardware enthusiast, these numbers are thrilling. For a CFO or a budget-conscious consumer, they are harder to justify. The 13-inch iPad Pro starts at $1,299. Once you add the Magic Keyboard ($349) and the new Apple Pencil Pro ($129), the total package costs nearly $1,800. For that price, a user can purchase a 14-inch MacBook Pro with the M3 Pro chip, a device that runs a full desktop operating system.

The iPadOS Bottleneck

The core issue driving the decline in iPad sales is not the screen quality or processor speed; it is the software. iPadOS remains a mobile-first operating system trying to masquerade as a desktop environment.

Despite the introduction of “Stage Manager” for multitasking, window management on the iPad remains clumsy compared to macOS or Windows. Professionals who want to use the M4’s power often hit a wall:

  • File Management: The Files app is restrictive compared to Finder. Moving large batches of files or managing external drives is often unreliable.
  • Background Processes: iPadOS aggressively freezes background apps to save battery. This makes rendering 3D video or compiling code difficult if you switch to another app.
  • Audio Routing: Podcasters and audio engineers struggle because iPadOS has poor support for complex audio routing between different applications.

Until the software allows users to fully utilize the M4 chip, the hardware is functionally essentially a Ferrari engine inside a minivan. You have the power, but you are not allowed to use it on the track.

Why Sales Have Slumped

Apple’s iPad revenue dropped 17% year-over-year in the quarter leading up to the M4 launch. Several market factors contribute to this fatigue.

The Upgrade Cycle is Long

Tablets do not age like phones. An iPad Air from four years ago still feels snappy for web browsing and video consumption. Because the software limits what you can do, users rarely feel the “slowdown” that prompts a laptop or phone upgrade. There is little incentive to spend $1,000+ to browse the web slightly faster.

The “Companion Device” Trap

For most people, the iPad is a secondary device. It sits between the iPhone and the Mac. During the pandemic, sales surged as people needed extra screens for Zoom and entertainment. Now that the market is saturated, the demand for a third screen has plummeted. Apple is trying to position the iPad Pro as a primary computer, but the OS limitations prevent it from truly replacing a laptop for many workflows.

Who is the M4 iPad Pro Actually For?

Despite the negativity regarding general sales, the M4 iPad Pro serves specific niches exceptionally well.

1. Digital Artists and Illustrators This is the one category where the iPad is superior to a Mac. The Apple Pencil Pro introduces “barrel roll” (rotating the pen changes the brush stroke orientation) and haptic feedback. Combined with the Tandem OLED screen for perfect color accuracy, this is the ultimate canvas for artists.

2. Field Workers and Editors Video editors using Final Cut Pro for iPad or DaVinci Resolve can scrub through 4K ProRes footage effortlessly. The portability allows editors to work on set or on a plane more easily than with a clamshell laptop.

3. The “Money is No Object” Consumer There is a segment of the market that simply wants the best screen available for watching movies on a flight. For these users, the price is irrelevant, and the M4 iPad Pro offers the best portable media experience in existence.

Can the M4 Save Sales?

Short term, yes. There will be a spike in revenue from enthusiasts and professionals who have waited years for an OLED iPad.

Long term, the outlook is murky. Overpowered hardware cannot fix a software problem. Unless Apple makes fundamental changes to iPadOS—perhaps allowing a “Mac Mode” when docked to a keyboard or opening up the file system—the iPad Pro will remain a luxury accessory rather than a necessary tool.

The competition is also heating up. Microsoft’s new Surface Pro 11, powered by Snapdragon X Elite chips, offers an OLED screen and a tablet form factor, but it runs full Windows 11. This means it can run legacy desktop apps, terminal commands, and full file managers without workarounds.

For Apple to truly reverse the decline, they don’t need an M5 chip. They need an iPadOS that treats its users like professionals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the M4 iPad Pro run macOS apps? No. The M4 iPad Pro runs iPadOS. While the M4 chip is the same architecture used in Macs, the iPad cannot run macOS applications unless the developer has specifically created an iPad version.

Is the new Magic Keyboard backward compatible? No. The new Magic Keyboard for the M4 iPad Pro features a larger trackpad and a function row, but it is designed specifically for the thinner chassis of the M4 models. It will not work with older iPad Pros.

What is Tandem OLED? Tandem OLED is a display technology that stacks two Organic Light Emitting Diode panels on top of each other. This allows the screen to get much brighter (1,000 nits sustained) than a single OLED panel could, while also increasing the longevity of the screen.

Is the Apple Pencil Pro compatible with older iPads? No. Due to a new magnetic charging array layout in the M4 iPad Pro and the new iPad Air (M2), the Apple Pencil Pro only works with these 2024 models. Older pencils also do not work on the new M4 iPad.

How much RAM does the M4 iPad Pro have? The 256GB and 512GB models come with 8GB of RAM. If you purchase the 1TB or 2TB models, Apple includes 16GB of RAM.